Blue Jays at Nationals
Last play · Myles Straw lines out sharply to second baseman Nasim Nuñez.
Win probability
Nationals100%
TOR 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 8 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+112 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Jacob Young scores. (inning 4) — +13% Nationals
8George Springer homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.6–8
5Jacob Young out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Daylen Lile scores.3–8
5Kazuma Okamoto homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.3–7
4Dylan Crews homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.2–7
4Luis García Jr. homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Jacob Young scores.2–6
4Andrés Giménez grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr. Brandon Valenzuela scores.2–4
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to third baseman Jorbit Vivas. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Jorbit Vivas.1–4
1Jacob Young walks. Keibert Ruiz scores. Daylen Lile to 3rd. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
