Blue Jays at Nationals
Last play · James Wood grounds out, first baseman Kazuma Okamoto to pitcher Louis Varland.
Win probability
Nationals0%
TOR 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 1 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto doubles (14) on a fly ball to right fielder James Wood, deflected by center fielder Jacob Young. Davis Schneider scores. Myles Straw scores. (inning 8) — -21% Blue Jays
8Luis García Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Myles Straw. James Wood scores.5–2
8George Springer singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Kazuma Okamoto scores.5–1
8Kazuma Okamoto doubles (14) on a fly ball to right fielder James Wood, deflected by center fielder Jacob Young. Davis Schneider scores. Myles Straw scores.4–1
7Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brady House. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.2–1
6Ernie Clement doubles (27) on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. George Springer scores.1–1
4Jacob Young doubles (14) on a fly ball to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. CJ Abrams scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
