Reds at Nationals
Last play · Ivan Johnson flies out to right fielder Dylan Crews.
Win probability
Nationals100%
CIN 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 2 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-133 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 6) — -31% Reds
8CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Andrés Chaparro scores. Jacob Young to 3rd.2–8
8Reds challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Andrés Chaparro singles on a line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Jorbit Vivas scores. Andrés Chaparro to 2nd.2–7
6Jacob Young singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Andrés Chaparro scores.2–6
6Andrés Chaparro doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Daylen Lile scores. Keibert Ruiz scores. Nasim Nuñez out at home on the throw, left fielder JJ Bleday to shortstop Elly De La Cruz to catcher Jose Trevino.2–5
6Daylen Lile singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Dylan Crews scores.2–3
6Eugenio Suárez homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores.2–2
3Abimelec Ortiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. José Tena scores. CJ Abrams scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
