Reds at Nationals
Last play · Tyler Stephenson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
CIN 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Abimelec Ortiz homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — +18% Nationals
8Andrés Chaparro doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Keibert Ruiz scores. Jacob Young scores.1–7
8Jacob Young grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Andrew Pinckney scores. Nasim Nuñez out at 3rd. Keibert Ruiz to 2nd. Jacob Young to 1st.1–5
7Daylen Lile singles on a ground ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. CJ Abrams scores.1–4
3Abimelec Ortiz homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
2Jacob Young out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jorbit Vivas scores.1–2
2Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Dylan Crews scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd.1–1
2Dane Myers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Tyler Stephenson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
