Reds at Nationals
Last play · Ivan Johnson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
CIN 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. CJ Abrams scores. Brady House scores. (inning 1) — +24% Nationals
4Harry Ford homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Daylen Lile scores.3–5
3Elly De La Cruz homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
3Matt McLain homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
2Eugenio Suárez homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
1Daylen Lile homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. CJ Abrams scores. Brady House scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
