Cubs at Nationals
CHC12–
WSH6Last play · Jacob Young flies out to right fielder Seiya Suzuki.
Win probability
Nationals0%
CHC 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-153 / +143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 5) — -36% Cubs
9José Tena homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.12–6
8Alex Bregman homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Seiya Suzuki scores.12–5
8Dansby Swanson homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.10–5
6Abimelec Ortiz homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.9–5
6Alex Bregman homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Seiya Suzuki scores.9–4
6Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Pedro Ramírez scores. Dansby Swanson scores.7–4
6Dansby Swanson doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Ian Happ scores. Pedro Ramírez to 3rd.5–4
5Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Harry Ford scores. Andrew Pinckney scores. Jacob Young to 3rd.4–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.