Cubs at Nationals
CHC8–
WSH6Last play · CJ Abrams grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Nationals0%
CHC 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 6 – 4 WSH
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-167 / +155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams homers (29) on a fly ball to right field. Brady House scores. (inning 1) — +17% Nationals
8Nasim Nuñez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Harry Ford scores. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.8–6
8Nationals challenged (trap play), call on the field was overturned: Jorbit Vivas singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Brady House scores.8–5
8Seiya Suzuki homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.8–4
6Alex Bregman homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.7–4
5Dylan Crews homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.6–4
5Dansby Swanson walks. Alex Bregman scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Michael Conforto to 2nd.6–3
4Seiya Suzuki doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Andrew Pinckney. Carson Kelly scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.5–3
4Carson Kelly reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Nasim Nuñez. Nico Hoerner scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.