Cubs at Nationals
Last play · Tyrone Taylor grounds out, third baseman Brady House to first baseman Abimelec Ortiz.
Win probability
Nationals100%
CHC 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 6 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-141 / +131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Crews doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Abimelec Ortiz scores. (inning 4) — +13% Nationals
8Jorbit Vivas singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Daylen Lile scores. Brady House to 2nd.0–7
5Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Dylan Crews scores.0–6
5Abimelec Ortiz homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Andrés Chaparro scores. CJ Abrams scores.0–5
5Andrew Pinckney out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jorbit Vivas scores.0–2
4Dylan Crews doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Abimelec Ortiz scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
