Rockies at Nationals
Last play · Braxton Fulford flies out to right fielder Dylan Crews.
Win probability
Nationals100%
COL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+180 / -194
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nasim Nuñez hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by third baseman Willi Castro. Jacob Young scores. Jorbit Vivas scores. Nasim Nuñez to 3rd. (inning 5) — +29% Nationals
8Daylen Lile homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Abimelec Ortiz scores. Dylan Crews scores.3–13
8Connor Norby singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Mickey Moniak scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd. Troy Johnston to 2nd.3–10
7Jorbit Vivas singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Keibert Ruiz scores. Jacob Young scores.2–10
6Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to right fielder Mickey Moniak. CJ Abrams scores. Abimelec Ortiz scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd.2–8
6Dylan Crews walks. Nasim Nuñez scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd. Abimelec Ortiz to 2nd.2–6
5Brady House doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy.2–5
5Abimelec Ortiz grounds out softly, second baseman Connor Norby to first baseman TJ Rumfield. CJ Abrams scores.2–4
5CJ Abrams doubles (26) on a ground ball to right fielder Mickey Moniak. Nasim Nuñez scores.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
