Rockies at Nationals
COL1–
WSH7Last play · Connor Norby grounds out, pitcher Orlando Ribalta to first baseman Andrés Chaparro.
Win probability
Nationals100%
COL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 4 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — +14% Nationals
8Keibert Ruiz homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Brady House scores.1–7
8Brady House doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Daylen Lile scores.1–5
5Daylen Lile homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
4Rockies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Dylan Crews grounds out softly, catcher Brett Sullivan to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Jacob Young scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd. CJ Abrams to 2nd.1–3
3Brett Sullivan singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Willi Castro scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd. Troy Johnston to 2nd.1–2
1Brady House out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Zac Veen. Dylan Crews scores. Daylen Lile to 2nd.0–2
1Daylen Lile singles on a fly ball to left fielder Zac Veen. CJ Abrams scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.