Rockies at Nationals
Last play · Keibert Ruiz flies out to right fielder Jordan Beck.
Win probability
Nationals0%
COL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 3 – 1 WSH
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+147 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Goodman homers (35) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 4) — -20% Rockies
5Cole Carrigg strikes out swinging. Jordan Beck scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Andrew Alvarez.3–1
4Daylen Lile homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
4Connor Norby doubles (17) on a fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Willi Castro scores. Connor Norby out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Jacob Young to second baseman Jorbit Vivas to catcher Harry Ford to third baseman Brady House.2–0
4Hunter Goodman homers (35) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
