Rockies at Nationals
COL13–
WSH1Last play · Harry Ford grounds out, second baseman Connor Norby to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Nationals0%
COL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 4 – 1 WSH
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+121 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Troy Johnston homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Connor Norby scores. (inning 5) — -31% Rockies
8Ezequiel Tovar singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Mickey Moniak scores. Connor Norby scores. Troy Johnston to 2nd.13–1
8Connor Norby singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Ryan Ritter scores. Mickey Moniak to 2nd.11–1
8Hunter Goodman homers (36) on a fly ball to left center field. Cole Carrigg scores.10–1
7Connor Norby hits a grand slam (6) to center field. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro scores.8–1
5Cole Carrigg homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake McCarthy scores.4–1
5Troy Johnston homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Connor Norby scores.2–1
2Andrés Chaparro homers (9) on a line drive to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.