Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Esteury Ruiz flies out to center fielder Jacob Young.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-134 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile walks. (inning 3) — +25% Nationals
8Heriberto Hernández homers (21) on a fly ball to center field.2–9
7Daylen Lile triples (6) on a line drive to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Dylan Crews scores.1–9
7Dylan Crews doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Andrés Chaparro scores. Abimelec Ortiz scores.1–8
7Harry Ford homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–6
3Brady House homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. CJ Abrams scores. Daylen Lile scores.1–5
3Daylen Lile walks.1–2
2Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Javier Sanoja scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
