Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Brian Navarreto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 2 WSH
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (20) on a fly ball to right field. Nasim Nuñez scores. (inning 7) — +44% Nationals
7Brady House singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Andrés Chaparro scores. Brady House to 2nd.3–6
7Andrés Chaparro singles on a line drive to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Abimelec Ortiz scores. Andrés Chaparro to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Esteury Ruiz.3–5
7Daylen Lile homers (20) on a fly ball to right field. Nasim Nuñez scores.3–4
5Daylen Lile homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Andrew Pinckney scores.3–2
4Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Agustín Ramírez scores. Javier Sanoja scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
