Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Joe Mack challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Andrew Pinckney called out on strikes.
Win probability
Nationals0%
MIA 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 1 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -116
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joe Mack out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andrew Pinckney. Griffin Conine scores. Leo Jiménez scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. Throwing error by center fielder Andrew Pinckney. (inning 9) — -71% Marlins
9Otto Lopez homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Heriberto Hernández scores.6–2
9Joe Mack out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andrew Pinckney. Griffin Conine scores. Leo Jiménez scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. Throwing error by center fielder Andrew Pinckney.3–2
9Jakob Marsee hit by pitch. Esteury Ruiz scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.1–2
8Daylen Lile out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Brady House scores.0–2
5Nasim Nuñez doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Jacob Young scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
