Braves at Nationals
Last play · Brewer Hicklen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
ATL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Harry Ford scores. Jorbit Vivas scores. (inning 2) — +25% Nationals
8Andrés Chaparro singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Daylen Lile scores. Yohandy Morales to 3rd.5–9
8Michael Harris II homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Olson scores.5–8
8Matt Olson hits a ground-rule double (33) on a line drive to center field.3–8
7Jacob Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Nasim Nuñez scores.2–8
6Brady House out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jacob Young scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.2–6
3Yohandy Morales homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
3Drake Baldwin doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Brewer Hicklen scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.2–4
2Brady House doubles (13) on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. CJ Abrams scores. Dylan Crews scores.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
