Marlins at Cardinals
Last play · Luken Baker pops out to first baseman Rob Brantly.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIA 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 1 STL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 52.6% · hold 5.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -160
Cardinals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Connor Caskenette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ian Petrutz. Griffin Conine scores. Echedry Vargas to 3rd. Rob Brantly to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% Marlins
9Connor Caskenette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ian Petrutz. Griffin Conine scores. Echedry Vargas to 3rd. Rob Brantly to 2nd.4–4
7José Fermín homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
7Pedro Pagés homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
6Alec Burleson grounds out, second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman Eric Wagaman. Willson Contreras scores.3–2
5Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Nick Fortes scores.3–1
5Nick Fortes doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Eric Wagaman scores.2–1
1Nolan Arenado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Derek Hill. Lars Nootbaar scores.1–1
1Kyle Stowers grounds into a double play, second baseman Brendan Donovan to shortstop José Barrero to first baseman Willson Contreras. Xavier Edwards scores. Derek Hill out at 2nd. Kyle Stowers out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
