Brewers at Padres
Last play · Luis Lara strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 7 – 9 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -140
Padres favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yuli Gurriel doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Luiyin Alastre. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jason Heyward scores. (inning 5) — +30% Padres
8Cooper Pratt singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kai Murphy. Tyler Rodriguez scores.8–14
7Kai Murphy doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Luiyin Alastre. Oscar Gonzalez scores.7–14
7Oscar Gonzalez doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Luiyin Alastre. Brett Sullivan scores.7–13
7Brett Sullivan doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Luis Lara. Eguy Rosario scores. Luis Campusano scores. Mason McCoy scores.7–12
5Tyler Robertson grounds out, pitcher Bryan Hudson to first baseman Tyler Black.7–9
5Yuli Gurriel doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Luiyin Alastre. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jason Heyward scores.7–8
5Caleb Durbin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Manuel Margot scores. Eric Haase to 2nd.7–6
4Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Tyler Black. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.6–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
