Astros at Mets
Last play · Jakson Reetz grounds into a double play, third baseman Jesús Bastidas to second baseman Zack Short to first baseman Luis Castro. Yonatan Henriquez out at 2nd. Jakson Reetz out at 1st.
Win probability
Mets0%
HOU 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 0 NYM
Astros led after 5
Total runs
13.5
opened 15.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Mets favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Yainer Diaz scores. (inning 2) — -24% Astros
8Zack Short homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.5–0
4Zach Dezenzo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jose Siri. Cam Smith scores. Jeremy Peña scores.4–0
2Cam Smith homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Yainer Diaz scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
