Guardians at Reds
Last play · Barrett Riebock grounds out, pitcher Joe La Sorsa to shortstop Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Cade Hunter.
Win probability
Reds100%
CLE 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 11 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -190
Reds favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ralphy Velazquez homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — -15% Guardians
9Cooper Ingle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Dom Nuñez scores.2–13
7Edwin Arroyo reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Jeffrey Mercedes. Will Banfield scores. Edwin Arroyo out at 2nd, first baseman Dayan Frias to second baseman Will Wilson.1–13
6Sal Stewart reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Jeffrey Mercedes. Jacob Hurtubise scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.1–12
4Christian Encarnacion-Strand triples (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Ralphy Velazquez. Gavin Lux scores. Jeimer Candelario scores.1–11
3Jake Fraley doubles (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Will Brennan. Jeimer Candelario scores. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores.1–9
3Gavin Lux homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Austin Hays scores.1–7
3Austin Hays doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. TJ Friedl scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–5
3Elly De La Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Jose Trevino scores. TJ Friedl to 2nd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
