Padres at Cubs
Last play · Chase Strumpf grounds out, third baseman Francisco Acuna to first baseman Trenton Brooks.
Win probability
Cubs0%
SD 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 0 CHC
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.4% · hold 5.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +105
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Wade homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Connor Joe scores. (inning 6) — -24% Padres
8Moisés Ballesteros homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.5–1
8Francisco Acuna homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
7Brett Sullivan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Greg Allen. Mason McCoy scores.4–0
6Tyler Wade homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Connor Joe scores.3–0
4Tyler Wade singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Jonathon Long. Elias Díaz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
