Braves at Padres
Last play · Bryan De La Cruz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 3) — +12% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to shortstop Orlando Arcia, deflected by third baseman Austin Riley. Brandon Lockridge scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 2nd, shortstop Orlando Arcia to second baseman Ozzie Albies.0–5
8Brandon Lockridge doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Xander Bogaerts scores.0–4
7Jackson Merrill doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–3
3Xander Bogaerts doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Cronenworth scores.0–2
1Manny Machado doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
