Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Alex Bregman pops out to third baseman Ramón Urías.
Win probability
Orioles100%
BOS 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kristian Campbell grounds out, second baseman Jordan Westburg to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Rob Refsnyder scores. Trevor Story to 3rd. (inning 3) — -13% Red Sox
9Jarren Duran singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Romy Gonzalez scores.5–8
9Romy Gonzalez doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Kristian Campbell scores.4–8
8Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Dylan Carlson scores. Ramón Urías to 2nd.3–8
8Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, deflected by pitcher Cooper Criswell. Ryan Mountcastle scores. Jorge Mateo scores. Dylan Carlson to 2nd.3–7
8Heston Kjerstad singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Tyler O'Neill scores. Ryan Mountcastle to 3rd.3–5
3Kristian Campbell grounds out, second baseman Jordan Westburg to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Rob Refsnyder scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.3–4
2Jarren Duran triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Kristian Campbell scores. Romy Gonzalez scores.2–4
1Cedric Mullins doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Tyler O'Neill scores. Ryan Mountcastle scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
