Pirates at Rays
Last play · Joey Bart strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
PIT 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Rays favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd. (inning 4) — +13% Rays
8Yandy Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Danny Jansen scores.1–6
8Adam Frazier singles on a line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Endy Rodríguez scores.1–5
6José Caballero doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jack Suwinski. Jake Mangum scores.0–5
4Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jack Suwinski. Christopher Morel scores. Kameron Misner scores.0–4
4Kameron Misner doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jack Suwinski. Jonathan Aranda scores. Christopher Morel to 3rd.0–2
4Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
