Mets at Marlins
Last play · Jesse Winker grounds out to first baseman Matt Mervis.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Graham Pauley doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Griffin Conine scores. Jonah Bride scores. (inning 4) — +22% Marlins
4Graham Pauley doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Griffin Conine scores. Jonah Bride scores.2–4
3Francisco Lindor singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Luisangel Acuña scores.2–2
2Brandon Nimmo homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
1Kyle Stowers homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Xavier Edwards scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
