Guardians at Padres
Last play · Gabriel Arias grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
CLE 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Padres favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — +13% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, pitcher Joey Cantillo to first baseman Carlos Santana. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jason Heyward to 3rd.0–7
7Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts steals (3) 2nd base. Manny Machado scores. Throwing error by catcher Bo Naylor.0–6
7Xander Bogaerts reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Gabriel Arias. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.0–5
6Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Jackson Merrill scores. Yuli Gurriel to 3rd.0–4
5Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Brandon Lockridge scores.0–3
5Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Jose Iglesias scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd.0–2
4Jackson Merrill homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
