Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle grounds out, second baseman Kristian Campbell to first baseman Triston Casas.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 0 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -15% Red Sox
5Rafael Devers doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.3–0
5Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Kristian Campbell scores.2–0
2Trevor Story homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
