Mets at Marlins
Last play · Otto Lopez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-230 / +180
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (2) on a line drive to center field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 8) — -42% Mets
11Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Javier Sanoja scores.6–5
11Mark Vientos reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Xavier Edwards. Pete Alonso scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. Jesse Winker to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Xavier Edwards.6–4
11Jesse Winker walks. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.5–4
8Pete Alonso homers (2) on a line drive to center field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores.4–4
7Nick Fortes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Otto Lopez scores.1–4
7Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Mark Vientos. Griffin Conine scores.1–3
3Otto Lopez reaches on a fielder's choice. Kyle Stowers scores. Griffin Conine to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Mark Vientos.1–2
3Matt Mervis out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Xavier Edwards scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
