Blue Jays at Mets
Last play · Will Wagner pops out to shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Win probability
Mets100%
TOR 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Mets favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 1) — +17% Mets
6Starling Marte out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder George Springer. Pete Alonso scores.0–5
6Brandon Nimmo doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.0–4
6Juan Soto doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Francisco Lindor scores.0–3
1Pete Alonso homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
