Padres at Cubs
Last play · Jake Cronenworth called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 4.5 ↑
fair over 56.6% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd. (inning 5) — +15% Cubs
5Dansby Swanson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Manny Machado. Kyle Tucker scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Justin Turner to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Manny Machado.1–3
5Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.1–2
3Martín Maldonado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Nico Hoerner walks. Ian Happ scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
