Marlins at Braves
Last play · Drake Baldwin flies out to center fielder Derek Hill.
Win probability
Braves0%
MIA 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 0 ATL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+215 / -265
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Mervis homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 1) — -22% Marlins
7Matt Mervis homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
4Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Derek Hill scores.3–0
1Matt Mervis homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
