Padres at Cubs
Last play · Brandon Lockridge grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd. (inning 2) — +10% Cubs
7Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Brandon Lockridge scores. Elias Díaz to 2nd.1–7
6Carson Kelly homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Nico Hoerner scores. Matt Shaw scores.0–7
4Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Michael Busch scores. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.0–4
3Dansby Swanson homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
2Kyle Tucker walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. Ian Happ to 2nd.0–2
2Carson Kelly singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
