Astros at Twins
Last play · Yordan Alvarez grounds out, second baseman Willi Castro to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Twins100%
HOU 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 6 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Twins favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose F Miranda homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Trevor Larnach scores. Edouard Julien scores. (inning 4) — +29% Twins
4Carlos Correa singles on a ground ball to pitcher Tayler Scott. Matt Wallner scores. Throwing error by pitcher Tayler Scott.1–6
4Matt Wallner doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Christian Vázquez scores.1–5
4Jose F Miranda homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Trevor Larnach scores. Edouard Julien scores.1–4
4Ty France singles on a line drive to left fielder Jose Altuve. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Jose Altuve.1–1
1Jose Altuve homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
