Blue Jays at Mets
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Luisangel Acuña. Bo Bichette out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mets100%
TOR 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Mets favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Davis Schneider. Juan Soto scores. (inning 3) — +12% Mets
5Andrés Giménez hit by pitch. Tyler Heineman scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. Anthony Santander to 2nd.1–2
3Brandon Nimmo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Davis Schneider. Juan Soto scores.0–2
3Pete Alonso singles on a ground ball to center fielder Myles Straw. Hayden Senger scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
