Cardinals at Red Sox
Last play · Pedro Pagés flies out to left fielder Rob Refsnyder.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
STL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 11 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Red Sox favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. (inning 2) — +16% Red Sox
9Thomas Saggese homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Luken Baker scores. Brendan Donovan scores.7–18
9Brendan Donovan doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Masyn Winn scores. Luken Baker to 3rd.4–18
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to second baseman Brendan Donovan. Romy Gonzalez scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd.3–18
7Thomas Saggese out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Lars Nootbaar scores.3–16
6Alex Bregman doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Rafael Devers scores.2–16
6Rafael Devers doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Michael Siani. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Jarren Duran scores.2–15
6Jarren Duran singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.2–13
6Carlos Narváez doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Trevor Story scores.2–12
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
