Padres at Cubs
Last play · Justin Turner strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs0%
SD 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 7 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado grounds into a force out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez out at 2nd. Manny Machado to 1st. Missed catch error by first baseman Justin Turner, assist to second baseman Nico Hoerner. (inning 9) — -33% Padres
9Manny Machado grounds into a force out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez out at 2nd. Manny Machado to 1st. Missed catch error by first baseman Justin Turner, assist to second baseman Nico Hoerner.8–7
8Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jackson Merrill scores.7–7
5Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Elias Díaz scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.6–7
4Jackson Merrill homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Manny Machado scores.5–7
2Kyle Tucker homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Ian Happ scores.3–7
1Carson Kelly lines out to shortstop Xander Bogaerts.3–5
1Nico Hoerner doubles (1) on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Kyle Tucker scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.3–3
1Justin Turner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Seiya Suzuki scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
