Marlins at Mets
Last play · Javier Sanoja grounds out, second baseman Luisangel Acuña to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+235 / -290
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Griffin Conine. Hayden Senger scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. (inning 5) — +25% Mets
7Francisco Lindor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Derek Hill. Luisangel Acuña scores.5–10
6Pete Alonso doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Griffin Conine. Luisangel Acuña scores. Hayden Senger scores. Juan Soto scores.5–9
6Derek Hill homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Otto Lopez scores.5–6
6Liam Hicks grounds out to first baseman Pete Alonso. Griffin Conine scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.3–6
5Starling Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Stowers. Pete Alonso scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.2–6
5Brandon Nimmo doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Griffin Conine. Hayden Senger scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.2–4
3Pete Alonso doubles (4) on a fly ball to second baseman Otto Lopez. Juan Soto scores.2–2
1Francisco Lindor homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
