Orioles at D-backs
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, first baseman Pavin Smith to pitcher Bryce Jarvis.
Win probability
D-backs100%
BAL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 7 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
D-backs favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — +18% D-backs
8Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Heston Kjerstad. Pavin Smith scores.0–9
8Geraldo Perdomo homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.0–8
5Tim Tawa singles on a line drive to left fielder Heston Kjerstad. Alek Thomas scores. Jake McCarthy scores.0–7
5Josh Naylor homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
5Pavin Smith homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores.0–4
3Corbin Carroll homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Josh Naylor out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heston Kjerstad. Corbin Carroll scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
