Pirates at Reds
Last play · Jack Suwinski flies out sharply to right fielder Jake Fraley.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeimer Candelario homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Blake Dunn scores. (inning 1) — +16% Reds
5Adam Frazier homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Tommy Pham scores.3–5
5Tommy Pham doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Lux. Jack Suwinski scores.1–5
3Jeimer Candelario pops out to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa.0–5
1Jeimer Candelario homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Blake Dunn scores.0–3
1Spencer Steer grounds into a double play, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to first baseman Endy Rodríguez. TJ Friedl scores. Blake Dunn to 3rd. Elly De La Cruz out at 2nd. Spencer Steer out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
