Twins at Royals
Last play · Willi Castro grounds out, second baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 1 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan India singles on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Freddy Fermin scores. Drew Waters to 3rd. (inning 7) — +23% Royals
7Bobby Witt Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Harrison Bader. Drew Waters scores.2–3
7Jonathan India singles on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Freddy Fermin scores. Drew Waters to 3rd.2–2
6Ryan Jeffers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Waters. Trevor Larnach scores. Ty France to 3rd.2–1
2Ty France homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
