Braves at Rays
Last play · Michael Harris II grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
ATL 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rays favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Danny Jansen homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Kameron Misner scores. (inning 4) — +22% Rays
8Danny Jansen hits a ground-rule double (1) on a fly ball to left-center field. Christopher Morel scores.3–6
8Ozzie Albies homers (2) on a line drive to right field.3–5
8Marcell Ozuna homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
6Danny Jansen singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kameron Misner scores.1–5
6Christopher Morel homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
4Danny Jansen homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Kameron Misner scores.1–3
3Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Taylor Walls scores.1–1
1Matt Olson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kameron Misner. Austin Riley scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
