Braves at Rays
Last play · Christopher Morel flies out to left fielder Eli White.
Win probability
Rays0%
ATL 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rays favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Michael Harris II homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Allen scores. (inning 9) — -41% Braves
9Jonathan Aranda homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Michael Harris II homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Allen scores.5–3
8Sean Murphy homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
8Ozzie Albies homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
7Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Yandy Díaz scores.1–3
7Sean Murphy homers (2) on a line drive to center field.1–2
3Jonathan Aranda walks. Yandy Díaz scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd. Junior Caminero to 2nd.0–2
1Junior Caminero homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
