Astros at Cardinals
Last play · Cam Smith grounds out, third baseman Nolan Gorman to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
HOU 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 7 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pedro Pagés doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Brendan Donovan scores. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 4) — +16% Cardinals
9Jeremy Peña homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Meyers scores. Zach Dezenzo scores.3–8
7Nolan Arenado homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–8
5Nolan Gorman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Chas McCormick. Brendan Donovan scores.0–7
5Brendan Donovan doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Nolan Arenado scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Brendan Donovan advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Cam Smith.0–6
5Nolan Arenado doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Nolan Arenado advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Jeremy Peña.0–5
4Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to center fielder Chas McCormick. Pedro Pagés scores.0–4
4Pedro Pagés doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Brendan Donovan scores. Jordan Walker scores.0–3
3Willson Contreras grounds into a force out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Mauricio Dubón. Lars Nootbaar scores. Luken Baker out at 2nd. Willson Contreras to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
