Cubs at Padres
Last play · Dansby Swanson grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
CHC 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 1 SD
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +120
Padres favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado scores. (inning 7) — +36% Padres
8Jose Iglesias grounds into a force out, catcher Miguel Amaya to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts out at 2nd. Jose Iglesias to 1st.4–10
8Luis Arraez homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.4–9
8Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (6) on a line drive to left center field. Elias Díaz scores.4–8
8Miguel Amaya doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Jason Heyward. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.4–6
7Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado scores.3–6
6Jason Heyward singles on a ground ball to shortstop Dansby Swanson. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Jose Iglesias to 2nd.3–3
6Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to pitcher Brad Keller. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.3–2
4Pete Crow-Armstrong doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Nico Hoerner scores.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
