Braves at Blue Jays
Last play · Nick Allen pops out to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
ATL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 6 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49% · hold 6.9%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / -105
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alan Roden homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Myles Straw scores. (inning 5) — +25% Blue Jays
9Ozzie Albies homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
6Matt Olson homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–6
5Anthony Santander homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Bo Bichette scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.1–6
5Alan Roden homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Myles Straw scores.1–3
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Austin Riley. Alan Roden scores.1–1
1Austin Riley homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
