Mets at Twins
Last play · Francisco Lindor strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
NYM 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Twins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — -16% Mets
7Brooks Lee homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.3–6
7Jesse Winker out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Mark Vientos scores.3–5
6Edouard Julien singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ryan Jeffers scores.2–5
5Ty France reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Luisangel Acuña. Byron Buxton scores.2–4
4Harrison Bader singles on a ground ball to third baseman Mark Vientos. Trevor Larnach scores.2–3
4Juan Soto homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
3Carlos Correa singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Byron Buxton scores. Ty France out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Tyrone Taylor to third baseman Mark Vientos.1–2
3Ty France reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Francisco Lindor. Harrison Bader scores. Byron Buxton to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
