Cubs at Padres
Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Padres0%
CHC 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Padres favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jason Heyward. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 10) — -28% Cubs
10Nico Hoerner triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jason Heyward. Dansby Swanson scores.2–1
6Pete Crow-Armstrong hits a sacrifice bunt. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 1st.1–1
5Manny Machado homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
