D-backs at Marlins
Last play · Xavier Edwards flies out to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Win probability
Marlins0%
AZ 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 1 MIA
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Marlins favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pavin Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — -23% D-backs
8Otto Lopez doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Eric Wagaman scores.6–2
8Lourdes Gurriel Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores.6–1
7Tim Tawa homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.4–1
6Pavin Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
5Corbin Carroll singles on a ground ball to center fielder Derek Hill. Gabriel Moreno scores. Alek Thomas out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Derek Hill to shortstop Xavier Edwards to third baseman Graham Pauley. Corbin Carroll to 2nd.2–1
4Matt Mervis homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
2Josh Naylor homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
