Cubs at Padres
Last play · Dansby Swanson grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
Win probability
Padres100%
CHC 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Padres favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Elias Díaz scores. Tyler Wade to 2nd. (inning 3) — +15% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. walks. Jason Heyward scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd. Tyler Wade to 2nd.2–4
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
7Manny Machado doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Tyler Wade scores.1–3
3Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Tyler Wade scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.1–2
3Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Elias Díaz scores. Tyler Wade to 2nd.1–1
3Kyle Tucker out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Carson Kelly scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
