Braves at Nationals
Last play · James Wood strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 5 – 2 WSH
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Vidal Bruján scores. (inning 4) — -26% Braves
8Jorge Alfaro singles on a ground ball to right fielder Eli White. Daylen Lile scores.6–3
8Vidal Bruján singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Michael Harris II to 2nd.6–2
4Matt Olson homers (27) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
4Jurickson Profar homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Vidal Bruján scores.4–2
4Vidal Bruján doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Michael Harris II scores.2–2
4Eli White grounds out, third baseman Brady House to first baseman Andrés Chaparro. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Michael Harris II to 2nd.1–2
2CJ Abrams out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Eli White. Brady House scores.0–2
2Jacob Young singles on a line drive to right fielder Eli White. Dylan Crews scores. Brady House to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
